Comments on: Saki and Probability – Episode 19

By: KitsuenNineTails

KitsuenNineTails — Mon, 12 Jul 2010 02:23:49 +0000

This is probably amazingly late (yes I know it’s been half a year since the last comment), so sorry about that (I got here, by Googling “rinshan kaihou” looking for the kanji ), but I noticed a slight flaw in the explanation of Saki’s first hand after Koromo discarded the one pin.

You show 1p1p(1p) 1p2p3p 2p2p2p 3p3p3p 4p4p (the parens indicate the called tile, which you show as a sideways tile) as the winning hand, stating a “mangan” worth 12,000 points. Mangan would have been 8,000 as Saki wasn’t the dealer. But you are correct with this layout as being chinitsu (5han) = mangan.

However, this is really a haneman hand:

1p1p1p (1p)2p3p 2p2p2p 3p3p3p 4p4p

This is chinitsu sanankou (5han + 2 han) which gives the requisite 6-7han for haneman.

Once Saki gets her first rinshan kaihou, all of her hands are chinitsu, rinshan kaihou, tsumo (5+1+1han=haneman) all the way until her last hand.

Like I said, just a minor detail, because your main point stands: the odds are utterly ridiculous to get even two rinshan kaihous in a row, much less three (much less the three others she got earlier). And even one is no mean joke. I think I’ve had the chance at least 30 times with called or drawn kans when I was tenpai, and never hit it.

But like you said… c’mon. THREE haitei raoyue? And Saki had all those rinshans before? If any player did what either Koromo or Saki did as many times as they did it, I’d be asking for a review to make sure they weren’t cheating.

But that’s why it’s fiction. Still love the series. It got me into playing riichi mahjong, so I guess that’s a good thing.

Ciao!

By: Twelve Anime Moments of ‘09 – #09 « Open Your Mind

Twelve Anime Moments of ‘09 – #09 « Open Your Mind — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 07:31:12 +0000

[...] the rest. That is the time when Saki won during episode 19. She had a hand that is practically impossible to get. Watching her pull a Kan one after the other and finally getting that tile that gives her the hand [...]

By: [Summer09] Saki

[Summer09] Saki — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 16:03:28 +0000

[...] time. Also, here's someone who sat down and did probability for Saki's Rinshan Kaihou stunts Epic Win Anime Blog Obviously we know it's not even remotely possible to pull off 90% of what's done in the show, but [...]

By: Saki: The Power of Yuri Mahjong « k1y0 ~suki yo~

Saki: The Power of Yuri Mahjong « k1y0 ~suki yo~ — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 05:09:06 +0000

[...] 19, for her near impossible win in defeating Koromo and the rest to enter the Nationals! There are sites discussing the (im)probability of Saki actually managing to turn her non-winning hand into a big [...]

By: MJDawg

MJDawg — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 12:33:26 +0000

I like the stat tear-inducing odds…otherwise calling them haxx0r monsters won’t be very apt.

By: Guff

Guff — Tue, 18 Aug 2009 17:08:55 +0000

Dude.
This is one of the many reasons I am so glad that we write things together. This is a perfect example of a post I would like to write but never could due to the fact that my mind becomes engulfed in flames whenever I encounter the most basic of arithmetic.

For example…
I was playing a flash-based mahjong game and was thinking of how utterly improbable the likelihood of Saki’s final hand was and the only thing that came to mind was, “there are probably a great deal of numbers involved with seeking an answer to such a quandary.” After that I stopped thinking about it and went back to re-watching paranoia agent. (As a side note, I cannot recommend this series strongly enough, and would like to do a post on it sometime in the near future)

On another note, I think if I had studied probability in high school with the aide of copious fanservice pictures I would’ve had a greater appreciation for mathematics in general.

Well played mayeng.

By: Nekonron

Nekonron — Tue, 18 Aug 2009 16:37:49 +0000

I think it’s easier to hit the lottery than drawing a hand like that. I doubt a hand like that has EVER been made, at least with lottery, people still do hit the jackpot.

Only someone who is in the same situation as Saki where they absolutely NEED that kind of win on the final hand of the game will they even dream of going for such insane draws. I think most people would just end it when they can even then.

But that’s seriously some impressive maths lol

By: Jesus159159159

Jesus159159159 — Tue, 18 Aug 2009 15:16:43 +0000

Freak out?! No, of course not! Nothing of the sort! I only thought that I perhaps lost your friendship again just like the time I talked like a sailor about Akari (which was one-sided cause I thought I lost your love, but in reality, you loved me just the same! I didn’t want a confusion like that to happen again! ;3… but yea, I did freak out alittle, since my email-client was going haywired! I really thought it was a hacker! You’re a sly one 0rion, I’ll give ya that! =3)

Also, I was really going to have a cute Akari picture, but ohhhhh nooooes! I’m definitely going with what Kabitzin said, and since you only like PG-stuff, you won’t even be able to post it on this site! XD

By: 0rion

0rion — Tue, 18 Aug 2009 07:11:03 +0000

@ TheBigN

Hey, now there’s a blogging acquaintance I haven’t heard from in a while! How have you been? I noticed you haven’t blogged in a while, but then I’m hardly in a position to criticize someone for their post frequency.

@ J159

I would hardly call it impersonation. =P

It was clearly intended to be a humorous response to your comment about my Gravatar, nothing more. Sorry it caused a freak out!

By: TheBigN

TheBigN — Tue, 18 Aug 2009 03:36:01 +0000

I love how the final started making statisticians cry. This final hand is just awesome. :3